Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | UNLV -250 AF +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -4.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -3.9 (+4.1) | 133.4 (+14.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -4.6 (+3.4) | 132.6 (+15.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -4.5 (+3.5) | 133.6 (+14.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -4.2 (+3.8) | 133.6 (+14.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#91) | 1.3 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#82) | -0.10 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#77) | 0.03 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#94) | 0.461 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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