Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -155 FRES +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -2.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -2.0 (+0.0) | 136.3 (-4.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -1.9 (+0.1) | 132.2 (-0.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -2.0 (+0.0) | 137.2 (-5.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -2.1 (-0.1) | 138.5 (-6.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#107) | 1.9 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#131) | -0.05 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#128) | 0.14 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#143) | 0.485 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.