Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -250 WEB +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -5.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.0 (-3.0) | 133.0 (-15.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.2 (-2.2) | 130.3 (-12.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.4 (-2.4) | 134.1 (-16.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.1 (-2.1) | 133.5 (-15.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#115) | -1.4 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#101) | -0.05 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#106) | -0.35 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#66) | 0.496 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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