Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -250 NAU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -4.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -2.8 (-14.8) | 141.0 (+13.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -2.6 (-14.6) | 138.3 (+15.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -3.0 (-15.0) | 142.5 (+11.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -3.4 (-15.4) | 143.3 (+10.7) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -3.0 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#165) | -1.11 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#158) | -1.16 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#122) | 0.449 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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