Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -150 SPU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +18 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -4.4 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.5 (-20.5) | 127.5 (-5.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.8 (-19.8) | 124.5 (-2.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.9 (-20.9) | 128.0 (-6.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.7 (-20.7) | 129.1 (-7.1) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#240) | -8.5 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#268) | -1.35 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#259) | -1.82 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#244) | 0.439 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 37.0% |
Game Analysis
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