Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -500 UNCW +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -9.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -8.0 (-3.0) | 141.2 (-20.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -7.3 (-2.3) | 141.1 (-20.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -8.6 (-3.6) | 141.7 (-20.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -7.2 (-2.2) | 142.0 (-21.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#61) | -0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#28) | 1.07 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#34) | 1.11 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#40) | 0.555 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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