Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SMC +120 GONZ -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +26 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -0.8 (-25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -0.7 (-25.3) | 140.1 (-12.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -0.5 (-25.5) | 139.3 (-11.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -0.5 (-25.5) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -0.5 (-25.5) | 144.0 (-16.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-2 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#11) | 16.7 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#16) | 3.08 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#12) | 3.87 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#7) | 0.637 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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