Tap turns on the water, see the waters flow. "Tap Turns on the Water" - C.C.S.
Boise State Broncos
82 – 77
FINAL Conference
New Mexico Lobos
Mountain West Conference · ExtraMile Arena · February 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread BOIS -5.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money BOIS -250 / UNM +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total BOIS win
Actual BOIS +5 159 Won
Massey BOIS -5.2 (-0.2) — —
Massey Totals — 146.6 (+12.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 74% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 81% ✓
Baseline Plus ML BOIS -5.8 (-0.8) 146.1 (+12.9) 77% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BOIS -6.5 (-1.5) 143.4 (+15.6) 79% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML BOIS -5.7 (-0.7) 145.3 (+13.7) 74% ✓
Baseline ML BOIS -6.1 (-1.1) 146.0 (+13.0) 76% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2026 BOIS 91 – 90 UNM
Dec 31, 2025 BOIS 62 – 53 UNM
Mar 15, 2025 BOIS 72 – 69 UNM
Feb 20, 2025 BOIS 86 – 78 UNM
Jan 18, 2025 UNM 84 – 65 BOIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BOIS UNM
Overall 24-10 22-12
Conference 13-5 8-10
Home 14-1 15-5
Away 5-6 5-6
Neutral 5-3 2-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 71.5 80.2
Avg Pts Against 65.0 74.6
Massey 11.8 (#28) 10.2 (#46)
Bradley-Terry 2.22 (#24) 1.79 (#46)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.85 (#21) 2.15 (#50)
RPI 0.606 (#19) 0.583 (#39)
Shooting & Four Factors BOIS UNM
FG% 45.4% 48.8%
3PT% 35.7% 36.1%
REB / G 35.8 37.0
OREB / G 8.7 9.8
AST / TO 0.96 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 53.6%
TOV% 17.1% 16.4%
ORB% 27.0% 28.9%
FT Rate 21.6% 29.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.6% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 18.1%
DRB% 77.3% 73.2%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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