Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -1000 MISS +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -13.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -11.1 (-7.1) | 138.7 (+13.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -11.7 (-7.7) | 137.9 (+14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -11.1 (-7.1) | 137.3 (+14.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -11.5 (-7.5) | 136.8 (+15.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#24) | 3.3 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#42) | 0.20 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#43) | 0.56 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#24) | 0.511 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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