Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +105 SJU -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -3.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -2.7 (-6.3) | 158.0 (-9.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -3.6 (-5.4) | 157.6 (-8.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.8 (-6.2) | 155.9 (-6.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -3.0 (-6.0) | 156.4 (-7.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-12 | 11-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#201) | 5.4 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#244) | 1.04 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#234) | 1.45 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#282) | 0.510 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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