Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -225 WAKE +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +16 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -7.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -7.1 (+8.9) | 156.7 (+7.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -5.8 (+10.2) | 154.7 (+9.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -6.7 (+9.3) | 157.4 (+6.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -7.1 (+8.9) | 158.5 (+5.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 6.9 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#23) | 1.53 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#29) | 2.01 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#31) | 0.556 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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