Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UL -1000 ARST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UL -15.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -12.4 (-1.4) | 140.3 (+18.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -10.7 (+0.3) | 137.5 (+21.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -11.8 (-0.8) | 141.1 (+17.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -12.1 (-1.1) | 141.0 (+18.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-0 | 10-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#102) | -7.8 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#78) | -1.52 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#76) | -1.86 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#53) | 0.404 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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