Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +140 USA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -2.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -4.1 (-4.9) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.9 (-7.1) | 132.5 (+10.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.1 (-5.9) | 132.9 (+10.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.0 (-5.0) | 134.7 (+8.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-10 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#214) | 3.6 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#211) | -0.16 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#214) | 0.06 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#216) | 0.494 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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