Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -275 UNI +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -7.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -6.1 (+16.9) | 132.5 (+16.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -5.3 (+17.7) | 130.4 (+18.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.2 (+17.8) | 131.2 (+17.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -6.5 (+16.5) | 132.8 (+16.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#134) | -1.8 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#100) | -0.41 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#119) | -0.50 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#90) | 0.485 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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