Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +200 TROY -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.5 (+1.5) | 134.7 (+25.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.3 (+2.3) | 134.4 (+25.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.5 (+1.5) | 135.6 (+24.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.7 (+1.7) | 136.5 (+23.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#290) | 2.6 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#262) | 0.26 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#252) | 0.44 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#262) | 0.530 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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