Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -150 INST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +1 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -0.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -1.5 (-0.5) | 154.9 (+22.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -3.3 (-2.3) | 156.7 (+20.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.3 (-0.3) | 153.9 (+23.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.1 (-1.1) | 155.3 (+21.7) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 INST |
| Dec 30, 2025 | INST 81 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BEL 77 – 75 INST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BEL 84 – 79 INST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | INST 78 – 72 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#127) | 6.2 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#118) | 0.50 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#130) | 0.55 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#77) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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