Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | STET -600 APSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +25 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | STET -13.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -11.5 (+13.5) | 142.5 (-15.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -9.5 (+15.5) | 139.7 (-12.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -10.9 (+14.1) | 141.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -10.4 (+14.6) | 143.0 (-16.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | APSU 69 – 60 STET |
| Jan 23, 2026 | APSU 73 – 65 STET |
| Jan 10, 2026 | APSU 81 – 69 STET |
| Feb 15, 2025 | APSU 76 – 63 STET |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STET 94 – 91 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#165) | -9.6 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#120) | -1.60 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#122) | -2.02 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#100) | 0.424 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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