Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +110 APP -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +26 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -0.3 (-25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.2 (-25.8) | 132.8 (-2.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -0.4 (-26.4) | 132.7 (-2.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.2 (-26.2) | 132.1 (-2.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.0 (-26.0) | 133.7 (-3.7) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-9 | 10-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#256) | -1.1 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#287) | -0.32 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#279) | -0.28 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#316) | 0.485 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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