Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -125 MRSH +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +9 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -2.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.8 (-10.8) | 156.9 (+18.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -1.7 (-10.7) | 157.8 (+17.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -2.7 (-11.7) | 155.9 (+19.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -2.1 (-11.1) | 156.9 (+18.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRSH 77 – 72 JMU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MRSH 66 – 64 JMU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JMU 67 – 64 MRSH |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MRSH 80 – 78 JMU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | JMU 81 – 64 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#83) | 8.4 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#105) | 1.17 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#89) | 1.55 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#97) | 0.576 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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