Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -700 WCU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +19 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -11.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -11.8 (+7.2) | 145.2 (-22.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -9.9 (+9.1) | 143.0 (-20.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -11.3 (+7.7) | 144.7 (-21.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -11.6 (+7.4) | 145.1 (-22.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#114) | -4.7 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#131) | -0.59 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#123) | -0.85 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#81) | 0.477 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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