Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -300 CIT +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -8.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -5.2 (+2.8) | 140.1 (+7.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.6 (+2.4) | 140.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -5.7 (+2.3) | 139.6 (+8.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.4 (+2.6) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#239) | -9.1 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#315) | -1.65 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#288) | -1.88 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#315) | 0.416 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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