Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UTC +140 SAM -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -0.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.2 (-4.8) | 150.8 (-5.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.3 (-5.3) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.0 (-5.0) | 150.3 (-5.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.1 (-5.1) | 152.6 (-7.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#188) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#232) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#228) | 0.40 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#192) | 0.527 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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