Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HPU +130 RAD -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -4.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -4.2 (+9.2) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.6 (+7.6) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -3.4 (+8.4) | 141.4 (-8.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -3.6 (+8.6) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HPU 86 – 77 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | HPU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | HPU 76 – 58 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#304) | 0.3 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#274) | -0.22 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#285) | -0.34 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#272) | 0.504 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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