Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | PRES +125 UPST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +2 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -0.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -0.8 (-1.2) | 131.3 (-15.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -1.2 (-0.8) | 129.4 (-13.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -3.1 (+1.1) | 130.9 (-14.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -2.2 (+0.2) | 132.2 (-16.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-2 |
| Away | 0-15 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L18 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#337) | -6.0 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#360) | -0.65 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#358) | -0.91 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#362) | 0.465 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.