Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | FLA +130 UK -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -2.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -1.1 (-9.1) | 144.6 (+11.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -0.2 (-7.8) | 144.2 (+11.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -1.5 (-9.5) | 145.6 (+10.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -0.9 (-8.9) | 146.0 (+10.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | FLA 71 – 63 UK |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UK 106 – 100 FLA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FLA 94 – 91 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#52) | 11.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#71) | 2.02 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#64) | 2.46 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#82) | 0.581 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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