Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | AMER +110 NAVY -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +16 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -0.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -1.2 (-14.8) | 130.7 (-6.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -2.1 (-13.9) | 125.5 (-1.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.0 (-15.0) | 130.2 (-6.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -1.2 (-14.8) | 132.6 (-8.6) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#252) | -0.6 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#251) | -0.37 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#262) | -0.49 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#264) | 0.502 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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