Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +333 BRAD -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -11.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -11.3 (+1.3) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -11.1 (+1.1) | 134.9 (+7.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -11.5 (+1.5) | 138.5 (+3.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -11.6 (+1.6) | 139.4 (+2.6) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#284) | 8.2 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#271) | 1.23 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#271) | 1.33 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#281) | 0.579 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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