Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -175 HC +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +22 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -3.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -2.1 (+19.9) | 140.5 (+17.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -3.9 (+18.1) | 139.2 (+18.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -2.5 (+19.5) | 140.3 (+17.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -2.5 (+19.5) | 141.8 (+16.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#332) | -10.3 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#323) | -1.73 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#326) | -2.07 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#331) | 0.431 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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