Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1600 TULN +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +30 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -18.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -17.1 (+12.9) | 146.2 (+1.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -17.3 (+12.7) | 144.4 (+3.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -16.0 (+14.0) | 147.7 (+0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -16.3 (+13.7) | 147.4 (+0.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2023 | HOU 80 – 60 TULN |
| Mar 12, 2022 | HOU 86 – 66 TULN |
| Feb 24, 2022 | HOU 81 – 67 TULN |
| Feb 3, 2022 | HOU 73 – 62 TULN |
| Mar 13, 2021 | HOU 77 – 52 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 11-0 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#2) | 6.9 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#1) | 1.23 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.75 (#1) | 1.50 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#4) | 0.548 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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