Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -450 UCSD +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -11.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -9.1 (+0.9) | 144.9 (-2.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -9.0 (+1.0) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -9.5 (+0.5) | 144.2 (-2.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -9.1 (+0.9) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSD 68 – 51 UCD |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 74 UCD |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCSD 68 – 57 UCD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCSD 85 – 60 UCD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCD 70 – 63 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#142) | -6.1 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#179) | -1.38 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#158) | -1.67 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#169) | 0.445 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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