Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UTA +110 TAR -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -0.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.2 (-4.8) | 133.6 (-0.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.3 (-5.3) | 129.1 (+3.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -0.3 (-5.3) | 134.3 (-1.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.1 (-4.9) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UTA 65 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UTA 71 – 64 TAR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TAR 69 – 63 UTA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UTA 67 – 57 TAR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | TAR 77 – 74 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#258) | -1.1 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#264) | 0.13 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#255) | 0.15 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#268) | 0.506 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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