Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | SOU -480 BCU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +27 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -15.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -10.9 (+16.1) | 147.5 (+29.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -11.5 (+15.5) | 147.9 (+29.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -10.9 (+16.1) | 146.0 (+31.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -11.5 (+15.5) | 146.9 (+30.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#215) | -14.0 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#217) | -1.77 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#224) | -2.29 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#202) | 0.380 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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