Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +320 TXSO -420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -5.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -5.6 (+9.6) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -7.0 (+11.0) | 135.3 (+2.7) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -5.3 (+9.3) | 136.5 (+1.5) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -5.5 (+9.5) | 136.7 (+1.3) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MVSU 72 – 71 TXSO |
| Jan 13, 2026 | TXSO 84 – 51 MVSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 38 MVSU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | TXSO 82 – 53 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | TXSO 73 – 52 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-19 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -16.8 (#358) | -6.9 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#353) | -1.90 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#350) | -2.59 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#345) | 0.432 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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