Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UMES -110 HOW +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -5.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -4.0 (+5.0) | 135.5 (+19.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -3.0 (+6.0) | 136.0 (+19.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -3.7 (+5.3) | 136.0 (+19.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -3.6 (+5.4) | 136.8 (+18.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#287) | -7.9 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#196) | -0.80 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#195) | -1.31 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.449 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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