Betting Lines
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | COPP +118 NCCU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -3.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (-43.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -4.5 (-0.5) | 155.5 (-32.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -4.8 (-0.2) | 152.2 (-29.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -3.1 (-1.9) | 156.8 (-33.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -2.5 (-2.5) | 159.1 (-36.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | COPP 58 – 56 NCCU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCCU 88 – 77 COPP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCCU 71 – 59 COPP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COPP 63 – 61 NCCU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NCCU 83 – 58 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 10-4 |
| Home | 4-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-16 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#299) | 0.6 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#226) | -0.81 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#226) | -0.74 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#210) | 0.455 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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