Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -800 VILL +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -23.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -17.9 (-9.9) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -15.6 (-7.6) | 138.9 (+1.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -16.7 (-8.7) | 144.7 (-4.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -19.8 (-11.8) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#1) | 4.5 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.87 (#1) | 0.56 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.80 (#1) | 0.94 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#6) | 0.543 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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