Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -190 INST +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -4.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -2.2 (-5.2) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -2.7 (-5.7) | 146.9 (-1.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.8 (-5.8) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -3.2 (-6.2) | 141.1 (+3.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#87) | 5.7 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | 1.18 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#131) | 1.73 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#105) | 0.554 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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