Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | CONN -600 SJU +430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -10.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -9.8 (-5.8) | 145.8 (-11.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.1 (-5.1) | 147.4 (-13.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -8.9 (-4.9) | 147.3 (-13.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -9.8 (-5.8) | 147.7 (-13.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#9) | 10.4 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#16) | 1.22 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#18) | 1.65 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#15) | 0.568 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 17.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 43.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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