Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +155 MARQ -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -3.9 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -1.7 (+16.7) | 138.9 (-9.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.7 (+15.7) | 139.9 (-10.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.4 (+15.4) | 140.7 (-11.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.6 (+15.6) | 141.8 (-12.8) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#69) | 15.6 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#43) | 3.57 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#33) | 5.26 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#66) | 0.657 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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