Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -180 ASU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -3.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -3.1 (+4.9) | 160.3 (-12.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -3.6 (+4.4) | 157.4 (-9.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -2.9 (+5.1) | 155.2 (-7.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -2.9 (+5.1) | 154.7 (-6.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | COLO 95 – 89 ASU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ASU 70 – 68 COLO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ASU 81 – 61 COLO |
| Feb 9, 2024 | COLO 82 – 70 ASU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ASU 76 – 73 COLO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#79) | 7.7 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#73) | 1.63 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#67) | 1.97 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#96) | 0.560 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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