Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M +210 FLA -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +19 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -3.4 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -0.8 (-18.2) | 165.5 (-12.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -1.2 (-17.8) | 163.6 (-10.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -0.6 (-19.6) | 163.1 (-10.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -1.9 (-17.1) | 162.9 (-9.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | FLA 89 – 70 TA&M |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 95 – 90 TA&M |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TA&M 67 – 66 FLA |
| Jan 19, 2023 | TA&M 54 – 52 FLA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | TA&M 66 – 63 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#30) | 22.6 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#31) | 3.00 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#32) | 4.31 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#57) | 0.628 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 16.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 43.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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