What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Cornell Big Red
99 – 104
FINAL Conference
Columbia Lions
Ivy League · Newman Arena · January 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread COR -3.5 Away covered
O/U 170.5 Over
Money COR -185 / COLU +154
Model Predictions
Spread Total COR win
Actual COLU +5 203 Lost
Massey COR -0.3 (-5.3) — —
Massey Totals — 177.1 (+25.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 35% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 33% ✓
Baseline Plus ML COR -0.6 (-5.6) 156.6 (+46.4) 50% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ COR -0.7 (-5.7) 156.1 (+46.9) 53% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML COR -0.3 (-5.3) 159.7 (+43.3) 53% ✗
Baseline ML COR -0.1 (-5.1) 160.2 (+42.8) 53% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 COR 88 – 67 COLU
Mar 8, 2025 COR 100 – 81 COLU
Jan 11, 2025 COR 94 – 83 COLU
Mar 9, 2024 COR 98 – 76 COLU
Jan 9, 2024 COR 91 – 79 COLU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings COR COLU
Overall 15-13 16-12
Conference 8-6 5-9
Home 7-4 9-5
Away 8-8 7-7
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 85.8 74.9
Avg Pts Against 84.6 73.5
Massey 0.9 (#155) 4.4 (#112)
Bradley-Terry -0.21 (#194) 1.03 (#92)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.47 (#198) 0.94 (#113)
RPI 0.524 (#121) 0.543 (#98)
Shooting & Four Factors COR COLU
FG% 48.6% 48.3%
3PT% 40.5% 38.9%
REB / G 34.8 40.8
OREB / G 9.9 12.2
AST / TO 1.55 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.3% 55.7%
TOV% 17.2% 20.2%
ORB% 28.5% 37.5%
FT Rate 23.2% 21.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.2% 47.8%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 14.5%
DRB% 69.0% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.1% 22.7%

Game Analysis

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