Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +200 AMCC -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -5.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -4.8 (+8.8) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -5.5 (+9.5) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -4.9 (+8.9) | 143.4 (+4.6) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -4.9 (+8.9) | 144.9 (+3.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | AMCC 73 – 71 HCU |
| Jan 6, 2026 | AMCC 81 – 65 HCU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | AMCC 62 – 48 HCU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | AMCC 68 – 62 HCU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | AMCC 91 – 79 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#286) | 1.8 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#308) | 0.20 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#283) | 0.36 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#297) | 0.514 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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