Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Long Beach State Beach
68 – 88
FINAL Neutral Conference Big West
Cal Poly Mustangs
Big West Conference · Lee's Family Forum (Neutral) · March 8, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LBSU -8.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money LBSU -500 / CP +333
Model Predictions
Spread Total LBSU win
Actual CP +20 156 Lost
Massey LBSU -8.9 (-28.9) — —
Massey Totals — 138.6 (+17.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 90% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 93% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LBSU -7.0 (-27.0) 139.3 (+16.7) 77% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LBSU -8.6 (-28.6) 137.3 (+18.7) 80% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LBSU -8.1 (-28.1) 138.4 (+17.6) 80% ✗
Baseline ML LBSU -7.6 (-27.6) 137.7 (+18.3) 79% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2026 CP 102 – 92 LBSU
Jan 4, 2026 LBSU 74 – 66 CP
Mar 9, 2025 CP 83 – 69 LBSU
Jan 25, 2025 CP 78 – 69 LBSU
Feb 11, 2024 LBSU 77 – 68 CP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LBSU CP
Overall 17-16 8-25
Conference 11-9 1-18
Home 9-5 6-11
Away 6-9 1-13
Neutral 2-2 1-1
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.6 59.4
Avg Pts Against 75.7 66.3
Massey 1.3 (#146) -7.6 (#301)
Bradley-Terry 0.02 (#168) -2.14 (#344)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.32 (#150) -2.30 (#332)
RPI 0.523 (#134) 0.388 (#355)
Shooting & Four Factors LBSU CP
FG% 45.1% 40.1%
3PT% 30.2% 28.9%
REB / G 40.5 31.2
OREB / G 13.0 8.0
AST / TO 1.04 0.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.6% 45.3%
TOV% 18.7% 20.9%
ORB% 35.0% 24.1%
FT Rate 22.8% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 18.8%
DRB% 72.2% 74.9%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 30.0%

Game Analysis

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