Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB -375 JKST +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +21 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -8.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -7.0 (+14.0) | 152.0 (-5.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -5.8 (+15.2) | 155.3 (-8.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -6.8 (+14.2) | 153.5 (-6.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -7.1 (+13.9) | 153.6 (-6.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | JKST 81 – 78 UAPB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | JKST 76 – 69 UAPB |
| Feb 11, 2025 | JKST 94 – 78 UAPB |
| Mar 8, 2024 | JKST 89 – 84 UAPB |
| Feb 13, 2024 | JKST 76 – 63 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 6-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#325) | -17.0 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#234) | -1.57 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#268) | -2.21 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#229) | 0.441 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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