Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WMU +350 BUF -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +16 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -11.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -9.3 (-6.7) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -10.8 (-5.2) | 146.4 (+7.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -10.7 (-5.3) | 146.9 (+7.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -10.0 (-6.0) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 12-5 |
| Home | 2-9 | 8-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#283) | 7.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#327) | 0.43 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#306) | 0.56 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.343 (#335) | 0.564 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 44.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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