Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Sojka Pavilion · November 18, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread BUCK -1.0 Home covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total BUCK win
Actual BUCK +7 155 Won
Massey BUCK -5.8 (+1.2)
Massey Totals 141.2 (+13.8)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 62%
Baseline Plus ML BUCK -1.5 (+5.5) 144.4 (+10.6) 54%
Model 4 ML BUCK -1.9 (+5.1) 145.1 (+9.9) 60%
Model 3 ML BUCK -1.9 (+5.1) 141.5 (+13.5) 55%
Baseline ML BUCK -2.2 (+4.8) 142.0 (+13.0) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 10, 2025 BUCK 5138 RID
Nov 24, 2024 RID 5753 BUCK
Nov 24, 2021 RID 8579 BUCK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BUCK RID
Overall 9-23 14-19
Conference 5-13 8-12
Home 7-6 7-6
Away 2-15 4-11
Neutral 0-2 3-2
Last 5 0-2 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.2 67.3
Avg Pts Against 79.4 69.7
Massey -8.5 (#323) -4.4 (#275)
Bradley-Terry -2.45 (#343) -0.86 (#269)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.66 (#341) -1.60 (#293)
RPI 0.385 (#280) 0.325 (#309)
Shooting & Four Factors BUCK RID
FG% 42.4% 39.3%
3PT% 32.3% 26.1%
REB / G 36.5 40.3
OREB / G 9.5 12.0
AST / TO 0.84 0.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 44.3%
TOV% 21.5% 17.6%
ORB% 26.0% 31.9%
FT Rate 9.6% 23.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 46.2%
Opp TOV% 12.0% 20.9%
DRB% 68.4% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 23.1%

Game Analysis

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