Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PORT +142 SEA -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -2.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -2.7 (+3.7) | 141.7 (-34.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -1.1 (+2.1) | 138.2 (-31.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -1.4 (+2.4) | 139.2 (-32.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -2.1 (+3.1) | 143.0 (-36.0) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | SEA 71 – 59 PORT |
| Nov 20, 2022 | SEA 80 – 68 PORT |
| Dec 31, 2020 | SEA 84 – 68 PORT |
| Nov 26, 2020 | SEA 84 – 72 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#205) | 2.7 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#174) | 0.53 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#164) | 0.72 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#214) | 0.503 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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