← Predictor
Does Effective Field Goal Percentage predict winners?
Field-goal shooting that credits a 3-pointer as 1.5 made shots.
Game Outcomes
Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss
Based on 5544 of 5764 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.
How useful is it?
- AUC
- 0.643
- Better team wins
- 60.5%
- Games
- 5,544
A weak signal — better than a coin flip, but not by much.
Reading the chart: points below the dashed diagonal are games where the home team entered with the better value; a predictive stat shows more green there and more red above the diagonal. AUC summarizes exactly that separation — 0.50 is a coin flip, 1.00 is perfect.