The Predictor
Which single stat best picks winners?
For every stat, each completed game is scored by which team entered with the better season-to-date value — built only from snapshots dated before tip-off, so nothing leaks. AUC measures how well that ordering separates winners from losers (0.50 = coin flip, 1.00 = perfect); better team wins is the plain share of games won by the team entering with the better value. Single stats are weak predictors on their own — the prediction models combine dozens of them. As of 2025-04-08.
| Stat | Category | AUC | Better team wins | Games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring Margin | Scoring | 0.749 | 68.5% | 5,547 | |
| Win Percentage (WP) | Results | 0.723 | 67.9% | 5,547 | |
| Defensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.703 | 65.3% | 5,544 | |
| Offensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.701 | 64.4% | 5,544 | |
| Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.668 | 61.8% | 5,547 | |
| Total Rebound Percentage | Rebounding | 0.665 | 62.1% | 5,544 | |
| Opponent Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.661 | 62.0% | 5,547 | |
| Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.659 | 62.1% | 5,544 | |
| Assist-to-Turnover Ratio | Playmaking | 0.656 | 60.9% | 5,544 | |
| True Shooting Percentage | Shooting | 0.651 | 61.5% | 5,544 | |
| Field Goal Percentage | Shooting | 0.649 | 61.0% | 5,544 | |
| Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) | Results | 0.647 | 61.5% | 5,432 | |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.643 | 60.5% | 5,544 | |
| Assists Per Game | Playmaking | 0.641 | 59.7% | 5,544 | |
| Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.618 | 58.5% | 5,544 | |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.616 | 59.2% | 5,544 | |
| Block Percentage | Defense | 0.615 | 58.4% | 5,544 | |
| Defensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.605 | 57.3% | 5,544 | |
| Defensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.600 | 57.3% | 5,544 | |
| Steal Rate | Defense | 0.596 | 56.9% | 5,544 | |
| Opponent Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.595 | 57.3% | 5,544 | |
| Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.594 | 56.7% | 5,544 | |
| Assisted Field Goal Percentage | Playmaking | 0.576 | 55.2% | 5,544 | |
| Offensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.573 | 55.4% | 5,544 | |
| Three-Point Percentage | Shooting | 0.572 | 56.0% | 5,544 | |
| Opponents' Win Percentage (OWP) | Results | 0.558 | 55.0% | 5,432 | |
| Free Throw Percentage | Shooting | 0.558 | 53.9% | 5,544 | |
| Opponent Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.554 | 54.0% | 5,544 | |
| Personal Fouls Per Game | Defense | 0.548 | 53.2% | 5,544 | |
| Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.543 | 53.3% | 5,544 | |
| Three-Point Attempt Rate | Shooting | 0.525 | 52.0% | 5,544 | |
| Pace | Efficiency | 0.505 | 50.6% | 5,544 | |
| Scoring Volatility | Scoring | 0.502 | 50.4% | 5,346 |
Rows in grey fall below AUC 0.55 — effectively no standalone predictive power. Defensive-direction stats are scored with their direction (lower is better) already applied.